AEDC Forecast Tentative, Pending LNG Decision

Heather Harris, AEDC’s interim president and CEO, noted that the reading of 42.8 tracks with similarly pessimistic national rates. “While personal finance confidence is still in an optimistic range, future expectations and local economy confidence are at all time lows,” said Harris of the three components of the index.

“With any forecast, we know that conditions can quickly change throughout the year,” Harris added. “Watch for more announcements about the Alaska LNG project, and expect that when [a final investment decision] is announced, this forecast will change.”

Greater certainty is built into the forecast for tourism employment. Jobs are expected to increase, even though visitor numbers saw a slight dip in 2025. Optimism centers on Southcentral cruise passenger capacity rising by about 20 percent, as new terminals open in Whittier and Seward.

Berry’s colleague, senior consultant Moira Gallagher, also pointed to a surging transport sector. The 3.82 million tonnes of air cargo landed in 2025 set a record for Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, and volume at the Don Young Port of Alaska also set a record, with 5.7 million tonnes crossing the docks in 2025.

Gallagher added, “With new passenger routes coming through Anchorage, planes are going to need more jet fuel—jet fuel that comes through the port.” Air cargo is expected to level off, reflecting depressed consumer sentiment, but passenger traffic is expected to increase, and that fuel demand will, in turn, prop up the port.

Jobs in the transport sector will likewise increase. “In 2025, this sector added another 550 jobs, right alongside that cargo volume growth. A lot of these new jobs are in what’s called ‘last-mile delivery service,’ such as courier services or local delivery from Amazon Prime or big-box stores. We don’t see that growth stopping yet, and we are forecasting another 450 jobs in the transportation sector in 2026,” Gallagher said.

Economic reports like the annual forecast remain one of AEDC’s top priorities, helping Anchorage businesses and residents make data-driven decisions. Board chair Mark Filipenko stated that AEDC’s other priorities remain business recruitment and retention and overall livability for Anchorage.

One of AEDC’s initiatives for livability, a sales tax to raise revenue for citywide quality-of-life improvements, has been tabled at the Anchorage Assembly. But another recommendation is taking shape, more than three years after it was made: wayfinding signs.

Bill Falsey, chief administrative officer of the Municipality of Anchorage, told the AEDC luncheon that signs will be installed this summer. “Years after [tourism consultant] Roger Brooks came to this luncheon, not once but twice as the keynote speaker, and said that Anchorage needed it, we are actually installing wayfinding signage and additional art throughout Downtown,” said Falsey to a smattering of applause.

Signs are intended to improve visitor experience, which not only drives economic activity from tourism but serves as a recruitment tool for potential future residents.

“Looking at 2026, we are focused on building on our strengths,” said Filipenko. “We aim to make Anchorage an even more vibrant place to live, work, and play. Helping us attract and retain workers is essential to long-term economic growth and prosperity.”