Alaska Department of Revenue Releases Fall 2020 Revenue Sources
Department of Revenue (DOR) Commissioner Lucinda Mahoney has released the Fall 2020 Revenue Sources Book. The Revenue Sources Book includes the Department’s fall forecast of oil price, oil production, and state revenue.
Unrestricted General Fund (UGF) revenue, before accounting for the transfer from the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve, totaled $1.6 billion in FY20 and is forecast to be $1.2 billion in both FY21 and FY22.
The Permanent Fund is expected to transfer $3.1 billion to the General Fund in both FY21 and FY22. These amounts include funds for general government spending.
Between continued growth of the fund and continued low oil prices, the Permanent Fund transfer is now the state’s largest source of UGF revenue, contributing 65 percent of UGF in FY20 and projected to contribute at least 67 percent for each of the next ten years.
For FY20, Alaska North Slope (ANS) oil prices averaged $52.12 per barrel. The revenue forecast incorporates the most current indications from financial markets and is based on an annual average ANS oil price of $45.32 per barrel for FY21 and $48 per barrel for FY22.
For FY20, ANS oil production averaged 472,200 barrels per day.
ANS oil production is expected to average 477,300 barrels per day in FY21 and 439,600 barrels per day in FY22, before climbing to 481,800 barrels per day by FY30.
Drilling and investment were sharply reduced over the past year and are reflected in the lower near-term forecast, but the department is optimistic that new developments will contribute to stabilizing production over the coming decade.
The Revenue Sources Book is an annual publication that provides basic information about state revenue, as well as a forecast of state revenue over the next ten years. The Revenue Sources Book is available on the Department’s website at www.tax.alaska.gov.
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