Fairbanks Energy Cost Study Calculates High Burden

The researchers also examined the data to see how the energy burden differs across the borough. They estimated energy burden by looking at census area differences in the housing stock that affect energy use—such as the size and age of home—and median household income, as well as market energy prices in the borough.

“One of the biggest takeaways was that the back-of-the-napkin estimate for energy burden in 2018 was 6.5 percent, which I could see while analyzing the data, but it’s 10 to 12 percent now,” says Jesse Kaczmarski, a data science researcher and economist with the Alaska Center for Energy and Power (ACEP) at UAF and the lead author of the report.

That is because energy prices have almost doubled since the 2018 Alaska Housing Finance Corporation’s Housing Assessment, he explains.

Those estimates used prices from 2017, but, according to price estimates from February 2024 and the third quarter 2023 FNSB Community Research Quarterly, the borough is currently experiencing some of the highest prices for space heating fuels in years.

According to the Energy Information Administration, if a household spends 6 percent or more of its income on energy, it is considered to be a high energy burden household. The administration’s Low-Income Energy Affordability Data (LEAD) Tool breaks down percent of energy use can track average energy usage in census tracts. In 2018, FNSB residents were already experiencing high energy burden, but now the burden is even higher— an average household in the FNSB spends more than three times the national average and almost twice as much as the high energy burden classification of 6 percent. This figure can be even higher, depending on where residents live in the borough.

“This means that there’s been a huge inflation in energy prices,” Kaczmarski says. “And energy cost increases have outpaced increases in median household incomes.”

Many sources provide estimates of the energy burden in Alaska, but they typically average all areas in the state. Areas like the Southeast, where the climate is warmer and electricity is cheaper, can bring down these averages. Also, the American Council on Energy-Efficient Economy’s estimates of energy costs in Alaska, particularly outside of major urban areas like Southcentral, tend not to match experience.

While high energy burden may not be surprising to many FNSB residents, ACEP’s data-driven analysis will help policymakers and regulators design programs that determine cost of living adjustments and utility assistance specific to the unique needs in the Interior.

The researchers were originally approached by FNSB to conduct this analysis. But the methodology in this report can be a model for estimating energy burden elsewhere in the state.

The report, “Spatial energy burden analysis of the Fairbanks North Star Borough,” was co-authored by Kaczmarski, Dominique Pride of ACEP, and Erin Trochim of UAF’s Institute of Northern Engineering.