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Alaskans’ Economic Confidence Rebounds in Second Quarter


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ACI by quarter since 2014.

JUNEAU – Alaskans’ confidence in their state and local economies, as well as their personal financial outlooks, jumped in the second quarter of 2018. The Alaska Confidence Index (ACI) rose to 57 for the second quarter, a reading five points higher than the previous quarter’s index of 52. ACI readings were up across the board, with respondents reporting stronger confidence in all six measures, including current and future expectations of state and local economies, as well as personal financial outlooks.

“It’s encouraging to see that Alaskans’ economic confidence is rising,” said Britteny Cioni-Haywood, director of the Division of Economic Development. “While the ACI readings have been up and down in recent quarters, economic confidence has been trending upward in the last year and a half.”

State Economy Confidence, the most direct measure of respondents’ feelings about the current state economy, increased from 46 to 51, breaking above the 50 mark for just the second time since the third quarter of 2015. Local Economy Confidence re-emerged into optimistic territory, from 49 to 54. Future expectations for local economies jumped from 45 to 51, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2015. Personal Financial Confidence has always been the strongest and least volatile component of the ACI, because personal and family decisions are within respondents’ control. The current reading of this measure jumped to 67, a level not seen since the inaugural value of the ACI in the first quarter of 2010, when the current personal component was also at 67.

The ACI is a measure of Alaskans’ confidence in the health of the local economy, their personal financial situations, and their expectations for the future. Northern Economics, Inc. generates the ACI using data collected by the Alaska Survey, a random quarterly sample of 1,000 Alaska households. The ACI comprises six components: 1) State Economy Confidence; 2) Local Economy Confidence; 3) Personal Financial Confidence; 4) Expectations for the Future – State; 5) Expectations for the Future – Local; and 6) Expectations for the Future – Personal. Each component is expressed using a value of 0 to 100. Values above 50 represent relative confidence in the economy, while values below 50 indicate lack of confidence. The ACI is released by the Division of Economic Development and supported by a sponsorship by the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development.

 

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