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Short-Term Energy Outlook April 12, 2016


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Highlights   

 

  • During the 2016 April-through-September summer driving season, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.04/gallon (gal), compared with $2.63/gal last summer. For all of 2016, the forecast average price is $1.94/gal, which if realized would save the average U.S. household about $350 on gasoline in 2016 compared with 2015, with annual average motor fuel expenditures at the lowest level in 12 years.

 

  • North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $38/barrel (b) in March, a $6/b increase from February. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $35/b in 2016 and $41/b in 2017. However, the current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook. For example, EIA’s forecast for the average WTI price in July 2016 of $35/b should be considered in the context of Nymex contract values for July 2016 delivery that were traded during the five-day period ending April 7, suggesting that the market expects WTI prices to range from $27/b to $57/b (at the 95% confidence interval).

 

  • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015. It is forecast to average 8.6 million b/d in 2016 and 8.0 million b/d in 2017, which are both 0.1 million b/d lower than forecast in last month’s report. EIA estimates that crude oil production in March 2016 averaged 9.0 million b/d, 90,000 b/d below the February 2016 level.

 

  • Natural gas inventories ended the winter heating season (March 31) at 2,478 billion cubic feet (Bcf), slightly above the previous end-of-March record high, set in 2012. End-of-March inventories were 67% above the level at the same time last year and 53% above the five-year average for that date. Henry Hub spot prices are forecast to average $2.18/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 and $3.02/MMBtu in 2017, compared with an average of $2.63/MMBtu in 2015.

 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/

 

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