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Short-Term Energy Outlook July 10, 2012 Release

Short-Term Energy Outlook

July 10, 2012 Release

Highlights   

  • EIA projects the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price to average about $88 per barrel over the second half of 2012 and the U.S. refiner acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil to average $93 per barrel, both about $7 per barrel lower than last month’s Outlook. EIA expects WTI and RAC crude oil prices to remain roughly at these second half levels in 2013. Beginning in this month’s Outlook, EIA is also providing a forecast of Brent crud e oil spot prices (see Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Added to Forecast), which are expected to average $106 per barrel for 2012 and $98 per barrel in 2013. These price forecasts assume that world oil‐consumption‐weighted real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 2.9 percent in both 2012 and 2013.
  • With crude oil prices falling over the last month, EIA has lowered the average regular gasoline retail price forecast for the third quarter of 2012 to $3.39 per gallon.  EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $3.53 per gallon in 20 11, to average $3.49 per gallon in 2012 and $3.28 per gallon in 2013.
  • EIA expects U.S. total crude oil production to average 6.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.6 million bbl/d from last year, and the highest level of production since 1997. Projected U.S. domestic crude oil production increases to 6.7 million bbl/d in 2013.
  • Natural gas working inventories ended June 2012 at an estimated 3.1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 23 percent above the same time last year. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot pric e, which averaged $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011, to average $2.58 per MMBtu in 2012 and $3.22 per MMBtu in 2013.
  • In April 2012, the United States exported 12.5 million short tons of coal, which is a monthly record based on EIA data dating back to 1973.  Although EIA projects coal exports to total 112 million tons in 2012, 4.6 percent higher than 2011, EIA expects that coal exports will fall by 15.5 million short tons (14 percent) in 2013.

         http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/

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