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FeedCPI all items rises 0.2 percent in January, with modest increases in food and energy
Consumer Price Index - January 2012
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.2 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The indexes for food, energy, and all items less food and energy all
rose in January, each increasing 0.2 percent. Within the food group,
the index for food away from home increased while the index for food
at home was unchanged; within the energy group the gasoline index
increased while the index for household energy declined.
Within all items less food and energy, the apparel index rose
sharply, and the indexes for shelter, recreation, medical care, and
tobacco increased as well. The indexes for used cars and trucks and
for airline fares both declined, while the new vehicles index was
unchanged.
The all items index has risen 2.9 percent over the last 12 months, a
slight decrease from last month's 3.0 percent figure. The index for
energy has risen 6.1 percent over the last year and the food index
4.4 percent; both figures are slight declines from last month. The
index for all items less food and energy has risen 2.3 percent, its
largest 12-month increase since September 2008.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
average
Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. ended
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 Jan.
2012
All items.................. .3 .3 .3 .0 .1 .0 .2 2.9
Food...................... .4 .5 .4 .2 .1 .2 .2 4.4
Food at home............. .6 .6 .6 .2 .0 .2 .0 5.3
Food away from home (1).. .2 .4 .2 .2 .3 .2 .4 3.1
Energy.................... .9 .8 1.5 -1.8 -.5 -1.3 .2 6.1
Energy commodities....... 1.3 1.1 1.9 -2.6 -.6 -2.0 .9 10.0
Gasoline (all types).... 1.5 1.2 2.0 -2.8 -.9 -2.1 .9 9.7
Fuel oil (1)............ -1.7 -.4 -.7 -.5 2.7 -1.0 1.4 12.1
Energy services.......... .1 .3 .8 -.4 -.4 -.2 -.8 .5
Electricity............. .5 .1 .6 .2 .2 -.1 .0 2.4
Utility (piped) gas
service.............. -1.2 1.0 1.5 -2.6 -2.6 -.6 -2.9 -5.5
All items less food and
energy................. .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .1 .2 2.3
Commodities less food and
energy commodities.... .2 .3 -.2 .0 .1 -.1 .2 2.2
New vehicles............ .0 .0 -.1 -.2 -.2 -.2 .0 3.2
Used cars and trucks.... .8 .7 -.5 -.4 -.4 -.7 -1.0 3.2
Apparel................. 1.0 .9 -.7 .4 .5 -.1 .9 4.7
Medical care commodities
(1).................. .0 .1 .2 .3 .2 .2 .6 3.2
Services less energy
services.............. .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 2.3
Shelter................. .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 2.0
Transportation services .0 .2 .4 .2 .0 .1 .0 2.1
Medical care services... .3 .3 .2 .5 .4 .4 .2 3.7
1 Not seasonally adjusted.
Consumer Price Index Data for January 2012
Food
The food index rose 0.2 percent in January, the same increase as in
December. The food at home index was unchanged, as the major grocery
store food groups were mixed. The index for dairy and related
products increased 0.9 percent, and the indexes for meats, poultry,
fish, and eggs and for other food at home increased as well. In
contrast, the index for fruits and vegetables fell 1.3 percent, its
fourth consecutive decline, and the indexes for cereals and bakery
products and nonalcoholic beverages also decreased. Over the last 12
months, the food at home index has risen 5.3 percent. The dairy and
related products index rose 9.0 percent over that span, the largest
increase among the major grocery store food groups, while the fruits
and vegetables index fell 0.1 percent, the only decline among the
groups. The index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in
January, its largest increase since August, and has increased 3.1
percent over the last 12 months.
Energy
The energy index rose slightly in January, increasing 0.2 percent
after declining in each of the three previous months. The gasoline
index rose 0.9 percent after declining the three previous months.
(Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 3.6 percent in
January.) In contrast, the household energy index declined 0.6
percent. The fuel oil index rose 1.4 percent but the natural gas
index declined 2.9 percent, its fourth consecutive decrease. The
index for electricity was unchanged in January. Over the last 12
months, the gasoline index has risen 9.7 percent while the household
energy index has increased 1.2 percent. The indexes for fuel oil and
electricity have risen over the last year, but the index for natural
gas has declined.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in
January. The shelter index increased 0.2 percent, with the indexes
for rent, owners' equivalent rent, and lodging away from home all
rising 0.2 percent. The apparel index, which declined in December,
rose sharply in January, increasing 0.9 percent. The recreation index
rose 0.6 percent as the indexes for admissions and toys both rose
notably. The medical care index increased 0.3 percent, with medical
care commodities rising 0.6 percent. The index for tobacco rose 0.5
percent and the indexes for household furnishings and operations and
for personal care increased slightly. In contrast to these increases,
the index for used cars and trucks declined for the fifth month in a
row, falling 1.0 percent, and the index for airline fares fell 0.9
percent. The new vehicles index was unchanged in January after
declining in each of the prior four months.
The index for all items less food and energy has risen 2.3 percent
over the last 12 months. The shelter index has risen 2.0 percent over
that span, the first time its 12-month change has been that high
since November 2008. The apparel index has increased 4.7 percent and
the medical care index has risen 3.6 percent. The indexes for both
new vehicles and used cars and trucks have each risen 3.2 percent.
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
2.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 226.665
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent prior
to seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) increased 3.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index
level of 223.216 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased
0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
increased 2.7 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the
index increased 0.4 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis.
Please note that the indexes for the post-2010 period are subject to
revision.
The Consumer Price Index for February 2012 is scheduled to be
released on Friday, March 16, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
C-CPI-U Index Revisions
As scheduled, effective with this release of data for January 2012,
the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
has undergone its annual revision. Because the current expenditure
data required for the calculation of the C-CPI-U are available only
with a time lag, the index is issued first in preliminary form, using
the latest available expenditure data at the time of publication, and
is subject to two subsequent revisions. Therefore, C-CPI-U indexes
for the 12 months of 2010 are issued in final form - employing
monthly expenditure weights from 2010. Values for the 12 months of
2011 are revised and issued as interim, using expenditure weights from
the 2009-2010 period. Calculation of the initial value of the January
2012 C-CPI-U index, and all subsequent months in 2012, will also be
based upon 2009-2010 expenditure weights.
For more information on the C-CPI-U, contact Rob Cage by telephone at
(202) 691-6959 or by electronic mail at Cage.Rob@bls.gov.
Redesigning the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Press Release Tables
The format of the tables contained in the CPI News Release will
change beginning with the CPI News Release for March, 2012, which
will be issued on Friday, April 13, 2012. News Release tables are
currently available as part of the News Release pdf and html files,
and independently in html format. The new tables will also be
available in XLS format. In addition, the BLS will begin issuing
monthly companion XLS files, which will contain additional index
level and CPI-W information.
These tables were made available for public comment during October
2011. In response to the public comments, the BLS will issue XLS
files each month, as companions to the News Release. There will be
CPI-U and CPI-W files, and in addition to the data contained in the
News Release tables, the Excel files will contain index values.
Samples of the companion XLS files will be available with the
February CPI News Release in March 2012. Samples of the new CPI press
release tables are available now at http://www.bls.gov/cpi/mock-
ups.htm.
In August 2009, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) restructured the
text of the CPI press release to focus on the price movements of
three broad expenditure categories, namely Food, Energy, and All
items less food and energy. Table A within the CPI press release text
was also updated in August 2009 to reflect this new structure.
Before August 2009, the text of the CPI press release had focused on
eight CPI `major groups' (Food and beverages; Housing; Apparel;
Transportation; Medical care; Recreation; Education and
communication; and Other goods and services).
While the text of the CPI press release was restructured in 2009,
seven additional CPI press release tables continued to be published
using the eight major groups. BLS has redesigned these press release
tables, to reflect the focus on Food, Energy, and All items less food
and energy. Within these three broad categories, CPI item series will
be further divided into commodities and services. The CPI News
Release will contain these updated tables beginning with the March
2012 News Release, to be issued on Friday, April 13, 2012.
Beyond the redesign in the structure of the CPI press release tables,
several other improvements to these tables have been made.
The new Table 1 gives a summary of the index series which typically
contribute to changes in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers (CPI-U).
The new Table 2 will show the full publication stub using the new
structure for the CPI-U, including 11 new items series that were
created to augment the redesign in the publication structure. Table 3
will show aggregate item series (e.g., Transportation) that do not
fall under the Food, Energy, and All items less food and energy
structure.
Table 4 will show the All items indexes at the local, regional, and
city-size class levels.
Table 5 will show the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers (C-CPI-U), and presents a history of annual percentage
changes in the C-CPI-U compared to the CPI-U.
Table 6 will focus on 1-month seasonally adjusted changes in the CPI-
U, while table 7 will focus on 12-month not seasonally adjusted
changes. Tables 6 and 7 will present three additional pieces of data
to help users better interpret index changes. First, these tables
will show the `effect' each item has on the price change for All
items. For example, if the effect of food is 0.4, and the index for
All items increased 1.2 percent, it can be said that increases in
food prices accounted for 0.4 / 1.2, or 33.3 percent, of the increase
in overall prices for that period. Said another way, had food prices
been unchanged, the All items index only would have increased 0.8
percent (or 1.2 percent for All items, minus the 0.4 effect for
Food). Effects can be negative as well. For example, if the effect
of food was a negative 0.1, and the All items index rose 0.5 percent,
the All items index actually would have been 0.1 percent higher (or
0.6 percent) had food prices been unchanged.
Second, standard errors for percent changes will be shown on tables 6
and 7. Confidence intervals for statistics can be created using
standard errors; e.g., roughly 95 percent confidence intervals can be
constructed using two standard errors. For example, if an item
increased 3.7 percent, and its standard error was 0.6 percent, the 95
percent confidence interval for that price change can be said to be
3.7 percent plus or minus two standard errors, or 3.7 percent plus or
minus 1.2 percent.
Finally, each item series in tables 6 and 7 will show the last time
that item had a price change as large (or as small) as the percent
change published that period. For example, if bananas rose 3.7
percent, and that was its largest increase since November 2007, that
would be noted in the new tables.
In addition, most of the existing tables show the `relative
importance', or weight, of each item category as of the previous
December. The relative importance columns in the new tables will be
improved in that they will be updated monthly to reflect the change
in relative prices over time.
Finally, there will no longer be any press release tables that focus
on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers (CPI-W). That said, the CPI-W All items index level and
percent changes will still be noted in the text of the press release,
and a companion XLS file with CPI-W information will be available.
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory
impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200,
Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.
Expenditure Weight Update
Effective with this release, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has
updated the consumption expenditure weights in the Consumer Price
Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and Consumer Price Index for
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to the 2009-10
period. The updated expenditure weights for these indexes replace the
2007-2008 weights that were introduced effective with the January
2010 CPI release. As originally announced by BLS in December 1998,
CPI expenditure weights will continue to be updated at two-year
intervals.
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:
(1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W),
which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that
comprise approximately 29 percent of the total population and (2) the
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban
Consumers (C-CPI-U), which cover approximately 88 percent of the
total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical
worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and
technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the
unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services,
drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day
living. Prices are collected each month in 87 urban areas across the
country from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000
retail establishments-department stores, supermarkets, hospitals,
filling stations, and other types of stores and service
establishments. All taxes directly associated with the purchase and
use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few
other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of
most other commodities and services are collected every month in the
three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group.
Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the
CPI-U and CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city,
by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and
population-size classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not
measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only
measure the average change in prices for each area since the base
period. For the C-CPI-U data are issued only at the national level.
It is important to note that the CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final
when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and
subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For
the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.
The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100. An
increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is
shown as 116.500. This change can also be expressed in dollars as
follows: the price of a base period market basket of goods and
services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
Section on (202) 691-7000.
Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error
because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the
complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes
estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent
change standard errors annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error
estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for
hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the
1 month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. All Items
Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly sample from
the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and
estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these
estimates would be within 0.06 percent of the 1 month percentage
change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change
of 0.2 percent in the All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are
95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all
retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the
latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of
standard error, see "Variance Estimates for Price Changes in the
Consumer Price Index, January-December 2010". These data are
available on the CPI home page (http://www.bls.gov/cpi), or by using
the following link http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2010.pdf
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually
expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points,
because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in
relation to its base period while percent changes are not. The
example below illustrates the computation of index point and percent
changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as
annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for
compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change
would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.
Index Point Change
CPI
202.416
Less previous index
201.800
Equals index point change
.616
Percent Change
Index point difference
.616
Divided by the previous index
201.800
Equals
0.003
Results multiplied by one hundred
0.003x100
Equals percent change
0.3
Regions Defined
The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed
below.
The Northeast--Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New
York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
The Midwest--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
The South--Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South
Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District
of Columbia.
The West--Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho,
Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by different
groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted
as well as unadjusted changes each month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally
adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the
effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about
the same magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from
changing climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers,
holidays, and sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned
about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used
extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining
contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation
changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal
variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes
are derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. Seasonally
adjusted indexes and seasonal factors are computed annually. Each
year, the last 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised. Data
from January 2007 through December 2011 were replaced in January
2012. Exceptions to the usual revision schedule were: the updated
seasonal data at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through
1977; and, in January 2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series
were revised for January 1987-December 2001 as a result of a change
in the aggregation weights for dependently adjusted series. For
further information, please see "Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted
Seasonally Adjusted Series," in the October 2001 issue of the CPI
Detailed Report.
Effective with the publication of data from January 2006 through
December 2010 in January 2011, the Video and audio series and the
Information technology, hardware and services series were changed
from independently adjusted to dependently adjusted. This resulted
in an increase in the number of seasonal components used in deriving
seasonal movement of the All items and 54 other lower level
aggregations, from 73 for the publication of January 1998 through
December 2005 data to 82 for the publication of seasonally adjusted
data for January 2006 and later. Each year the seasonal status of
every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria.
If any of the 82 components change their seasonal adjustment status
from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally
adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series
for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that
period will not be changed. Note: 38 of the 82 components are not
seasonally adjusted for 2012.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the all items index levels, are
subject to revision for up to five years after their original
release. For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data
in escalation agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment
procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some
CPI series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for
better estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or
sharp movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are
estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal
factors. Beginning with the calculation of seasonal factors for
1996, X-12-ARIMA software was used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal
Adjustment.
For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2012, BLS adjusted 31
series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including
selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity and
vehicles. For example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel
series to offset the effects of events such as damage to oil
refineries from Hurricane Katrina.
For a complete list of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
series and explanations, please refer to the article "Intervention
Analysis Seasonal Adjustment", located on our website at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisapage.htm.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please
write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices
and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact David Levin at
(202) 691-6968, or by e-mail at Levin.David@bls.gov. If you have
general questions about the CPI, please call our information staff at
(202) 691-7000.
Revised seasonally adjusted changes
Over-the-month percent changes in the U.S. City Average Consumer
Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for All Items and for All
Items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, using former and
recalculated seasonal factors for 2011.
All Items
2011 Former Recalculated Difference
January .4 .3 -.1
February .5 .4 -.1
March .5 .5 .0
April .4 .4 .0
May .2 .3 .1
June -.2 .1 .3
July .5 .3 -.2
August .4 .3 -.1
September .3 .3 .0
October -.1 .0 .1
November .0 .1 .1
December .0 .0 .0
All Items less food and energy
2011 Former Recalculated Difference
January .2 .2 .0
February .2 .2 .0
March .1 .2 .1
April .2 .2 .0
May .3 .3 .0
June .3 .2 -.1
July .2 .2 .0
August .2 .2 .0
September .1 .1 .0
October .1 .2 .1
November .2 .2 .0
December .1 .1 .0
- Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): Seasonally adjusted U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 3. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): Selected areas, all items index
- Table 4. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 5. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): Seasonally adjusted U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 6. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): Selected areas, all items index
- Table 7. Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
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