CPI unchanged in November as energy declines offset increases in other categories
Published:
Consumer Price Index - November 2011
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was
unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all
items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The energy index declined for the second month in a row and offset
increases in the indexes for food and all items less food and energy.
As in October, the gasoline index fell sharply and the index for
household energy declined as well. The food index rose slightly in
November, though the index for food at home declined as four of the
six major grocery store food group indexes fell.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in
November following increases of 0.1 percent in each of the prior two
months. The indexes for shelter, medical care, apparel, and personal
care all rose. These increases more than offset declines in the
indexes for new vehicles and used cars and trucks.
The all items index has risen 3.4 percent over the last 12 months.
This is a slightly smaller increase than last month's 3.5 percent
figure, as the 12-month change in the energy index declined from 14.2
percent to 12.4 percent. The 12-month change in the food index also
declined slightly, from 4.7 percent to 4.6 percent. In contrast, the
12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy
continued to rise, reaching 2.2 percent in November.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
average
Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. ended
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Nov.
2011
All items.................. .2 -.2 .5 .4 .3 -.1 .0 3.4
Food...................... .4 .2 .4 .5 .4 .1 .1 4.6
Food at home............. .5 .2 .6 .6 .6 .1 -.1 5.9
Food away from home (1).. .2 .3 .2 .4 .2 .2 .3 2.9
Energy.................... -1.0 -4.4 2.8 1.2 2.0 -2.0 -1.6 12.4
Energy commodities....... -1.9 -6.3 4.3 1.6 2.7 -2.9 -2.1 19.9
Gasoline (all types).... -2.0 -6.8 4.7 1.9 2.9 -3.1 -2.4 19.7
Fuel oil (1)............ -.8 -2.2 -1.7 -.4 -.7 -.5 2.7 25.0
Energy services.......... .6 -1.1 .4 .4 .7 -.4 -.7 1.7
Electricity............. .8 -1.6 .8 -.1 .7 .4 .4 2.7
Utility (piped) gas
service.............. -.3 .4 -1.2 2.2 .8 -3.0 -4.4 -1.3
All items less food and
energy................. .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1 .2 2.2
Commodities less food and
energy commodities.... .5 .5 .3 .4 -.2 -.1 .1 2.2
New vehicles............ 1.1 .6 .0 .0 .0 -.3 -.3 3.3
Used cars and trucks.... 1.1 1.6 .7 .9 -.6 -.6 -.1 4.9
Apparel................. 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 -1.1 .4 .6 4.8
Medical care commodities
(1).................. .0 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .2 3.1
Services less energy
services.............. .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 2.1
Shelter................. .2 .2 .3 .2 .1 .2 .2 1.8
Transportation services .1 -.3 -.1 .2 .5 .1 .1 2.6
Medical care services... .3 .3 .3 .3 .2 .5 .5 3.5
1 Not seasonally adjusted.
Consumer Price Index Data for November 2011
Food
The food index rose 0.1 percent in November, the same increase as in
October. The index for food at home, however, declined for the first
time since June 2010, falling 0.1 percent. The fruits and vegetables
index, which fell 1.7 percent in October, declined 0.6 percent in
November, as both the fresh fruits and fresh vegetables indexes
continued to decline. The index for dairy and related products fell
0.3 percent in November while the indexes for meats, poultry, fish,
and eggs and for other food at home both decreased 0.1 percent. The
only major grocery store food groups to post increases were cereal
and bakery products, which rose 0.3 percent, and nonalcoholic
beverages, which increased 0.2 percent. Despite the November
decrease, the index for food at home has risen 5.9 percent over the
past year with all six major grocery store food groups up at least
4.4 percent. The index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent
in November after rising 0.2 percent in October and has risen 2.9
percent over the past year.
Energy
The energy index, which fell 2.0 percent in October, declined 1.6
percent in November as gasoline prices continued to fall. The
gasoline index decreased 2.4 percent in November following a 3.1
percent decline in October. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline
prices fell 1.1 percent in November.) The household energy index
declined in November as well, falling 0.4 percent. A 4.4 percent
decline in the index for natural gas more than offset a 2.7 percent
increase in the fuel oil index and a 0.4 percent rise in the index
for electricity. Energy indexes are still mostly up over the past
year despite the November declines. The gasoline index has increased
19.7 percent, while the household energy index has risen 3.1 percent
with the fuel oil index up 25.0 percent, the electricity index up 2.7
percent, but the natural gas index down 1.3 percent.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in
November, the largest increase since August. As was the case last
month, increases in the indexes for shelter, medical care, and
apparel accounted for most of the increase. The shelter index rose
0.2 percent, the same increase as in October, as the rent index rose
0.2 percent and the index for owners' equivalent rent increased 0.1
percent. The index for medical care, which rose 0.5 percent in
October, rose 0.4 percent in November with the medical care services
index repeating its October increase of 0.5 percent. The apparel
index increased 0.6 percent in November following a 0.4 percent
increase in October and has now risen in seven of the last eight
months. The index for personal care rose notably in November,
increasing 0.6 percent, while the tobacco and recreation indexes both
posted slight increases. In contrast, the new vehicles index fell 0.3
percent and the index for used cars and trucks declined 0.1 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy has increased 2.2
percent over the last 12 months, the largest such increase since
2008. The 12-month change in the shelter index has been steadily
increasing and reached 1.8 percent in November. The 12-month change
in the medical care index was 3.4 percent, its highest level in over
a year, while the apparel index has risen 4.8 percent over the last
12 months, the largest figure since 1991.
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
3.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 226.230
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined 0.1 percent prior to
seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) increased 3.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index
level of 222.813 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined
0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
increased 3.2 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the
index declined 0.1 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please
note that the indexes for the post-2009 period are subject to
revision.
The Consumer Price Index for December 2011 is scheduled to be released
on Thursday, January 19, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. (EST). Releases for the
remainder of 2012 are scheduled on the following dates:
Feb. 17 Aug. 15
Mar. 16 Sep. 14
Apr. 13 Oct. 16
May 15 Nov. 15
June 14 Dec. 14
July 17
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory
impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200,
Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:
(1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which
covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise
approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for
All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban
Consumers (C-CPI-U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total
population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker
households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical
workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and
retirees and others not in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services,
drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day
living. Prices are collected each month in 87 urban areas across the
country from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000 retail
establishments-department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling
stations, and other types of stores and service establishments. All
taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are
included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are
obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of most other
commodities and services are collected every month in the three
largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices
of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U
and CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by
region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and
population-size classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not
measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only
measure the average change in prices for each area since the base
period. For the C-CPI-U data are issued only at the national level.
It is important to note that the CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final
when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and
subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For
the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The
reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100. An
increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is
shown as 116.500. This change can also be expressed in dollars as
follows: the price of a base period market basket of goods and
services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
Section on (202) 691-7000.
Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error
because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the
complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes
estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change
standard errors annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error
estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis
testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1 month
percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. All Items Consumer Price
Index. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of
all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a
percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these estimates would
be within 0.06 percent of the 1 month percentage change based on all
retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in
the All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident
that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall
between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including
information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see
"Variance Estimates for Price Changes in the Consumer Price Index,
January-December 2010". These data are available on the CPI home page
(http://www.bls.gov/cpi), or by using the following link
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2010.pdf
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually
expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points,
because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in
relation to its base period while percent changes are not. The
example below illustrates the computation of index point and percent
changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as
annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for
compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change
would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.
Index Point Change
CPI
202.416
Less previous index
201.800
Equals index point change
.616
Percent Change
Index point difference
.616
Divided by the previous index
201.800
Equals
0.003
Results multiplied by one hundred
0.003x100
Equals percent change
0.3
Regions Defined
The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed
below.
The Northeast--Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New
York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
The Midwest--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
The South--Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South
Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District
of Columbia.
The West--Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho,
Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by different
groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted
as well as unadjusted changes each month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted
changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of
changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same
magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing
climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays,
and sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned
about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used
extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining
contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation
changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal
variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes are
derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. Seasonally
adjusted indexes and seasonal factors are computed annually. Each
year, the last 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised. Data
from January 2006 through December 2010 were replaced in January 2011.
Exceptions to the usual revision schedule were: the updated seasonal
data at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977; and, in
January 2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for
January 1987-December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation
weights for dependently adjusted series. For further information,
please see "Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted
Series," in the October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report.
Effective with the publication of data from January 2006 through
December 2010 in January 2011, the Video and audio series and the
Information technology, hardware and services series were changed from
independently adjusted to dependently adjusted. This resulted in an
increase in the number of seasonal components used in deriving
seasonal movement of the All items and 54 other lower level
aggregations, from 73 for the publication of January 1998 through
December 2005 data to 82 for the publication of seasonally adjusted
data for January 2006 and later. Each year the seasonal status of
every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria.
If any of the 82 components change their seasonal adjustment status
from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally
adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series
for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that
period will not be changed. Note: 37 of the 82 components are not
seasonally adjusted for 2011.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the all items index levels, are
subject to revision for up to five years after their original release.
For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in
escalation agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment
procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some
CPI series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for
better estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or
sharp movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated
and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors.
Beginning with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-
ARIMA software was used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment.
For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2011, BLS adjusted 29
series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including
selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity and
vehicles. For example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel
series to offset the effects of events such as damage to oil
refineries from Hurricane Katrina.
For a complete list of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
series and explanations, please refer to the article "Intervention
Analysis Seasonal Adjustment", located on our website at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisapage.htm.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please
write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices
and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact David Levin at
(202) 691-6968, or by e-mail at Levin.David@bls.gov. If you have
general questions about the CPI, please call our information staff at
(202) 691-7000.
- Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): Seasonally adjusted U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 3. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): Selected areas, all items index
- Table 4. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 5. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): Seasonally adjusted U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 6. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): Selected areas, all items index
- Table 7. Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
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