Short-Term Energy Outlook
- EIA projects that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price, which ended July at more than $78 per barrel, will average $81 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2010 and $84 per barrel in 2011, slightly above the forecasts in last month's Outlook.
- EIA expects that regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.35 per gallon last year, will average $2.77 per gallon over the second half of 2010, up one cent per gallon from the average for the first half of the year.
- The projected Henry Hub natural gas spot price averages $4.69 per million Btu (MMBtu) this year, a $0.74-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average, but virtually unchanged from the forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price will average $4.98 per MMBtu in 2011, down $0.19 per MMBtu from last month's Outlook.
- The annual average residential electricity price increases only moderately over the forecast period, averaging 11.6 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in 2010, up slightly from 11.5 cents per kWh in 2009, and rising to 11.9 cents per kWh in 2011.
- Estimated U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels, which declined by 7.0 percent in 2009, are expected to increase by 3.4 percent and 0.8 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, as economic growth spurs higher energy consumption. However, even with these increases, projected emissions remain below their level in any year from 1999 through 2008.
To see details of this forecast update, go to the following World Wide Web site on the Internet: